외환거래 뉴스 타임라인

USD/JPY finds cushion near 155.00 after plummeting from 160.00 on probable Japan’s intervention.Investors expect Japan’s intervention would only provide provisional support to the Japanese Yen.The US Dollar finds support on expectations that the Fed will support higher interest rates for a longer period.The USD/JPY finds provisional support near 155.00 in Monday’s early American session. The asset registered a vertical sell-off from historic highs of 160.00, which market participants recognised as an outcome of suspected intervention by Japan’s authorities. However, Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, didn't confirm any FX intervention in his speech in the European session. Kanda said, "Speculative, rapid and abnormal FX moves have had a bad impact on the economy, so are unacceptable.". Kanda refrained from providing an appropriate level when asked about what could be the probable zone where the administration could intervene if authorities have not stepped yet. Prospects of Japan’s FX intervention remained high as the Japanese Yen has weakened significantly. The Japanese Yen remained on the back foot despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) pivoting to monetary policy tightening after maintaining a super-easy monetary policy stance for more than a decade. Though the BoJ has moved its interest rates to a positive trajectory, investors remain worried about the limited scope of policy tightening due to uncertainty over the wage-growth spiral. The BoJ is moderately moving toward policy normalization, but firm expectations of prolonged policy divergence between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve (Fed) are making it difficult for the Japanese Yen to establish a firm footing. Meanwhile, the US Dollar rebounds amid uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, recovers after discovering buying interest near 105.45. The Fed is expected to maintain the status quo for the sixth straight time and will maintain the argument of keeping interest rates restrictive until it gets confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 156.76 Today Daily Change -1.57 Today Daily Change % -0.99 Today daily open 158.33   Trends Daily SMA20 153.64 Daily SMA50 151.44 Daily SMA100 148.64 Daily SMA200 148.06   Levels Previous Daily High 158.44 Previous Daily Low 154.97 Previous Weekly High 158.44 Previous Weekly Low 154.46 Previous Monthly High 151.97 Previous Monthly Low 146.48 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 157.11 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 156.3 Daily Pivot Point S1 156.05 Daily Pivot Point S2 153.78 Daily Pivot Point S3 152.59 Daily Pivot Point R1 159.52 Daily Pivot Point R2 160.71 Daily Pivot Point R3 162.99    

AUD/USD is in a short-term uptrend that is extending.The pair is pulling back within a rising channel. It will probably find support at the lower channel line and then resume its uptrend.   AUD/USD extends its short-term uptrend as it trades in the mid-0.6550s on Monday.  AUD/USD 4-hour ChartçThe pair has formed a neat channel higher on the 4-hour chart used to assess the short-term trend.  AUD/USD is currently pulling back within the channel but will probably find support at the lower channel line at around 0.6540, and – given “the trend is your friend” as they say – resume its bull trend thereafter.  The next target in AUD/USD’s march higher is probably the upper channel line at around 0.6600.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator is not yet overbought, signaling the possibility more buyers may yet enter the market and push the pair higher. The RSI is, however, currently showing mild bearish divergence when compared with the peak of April 24 when the RSI poked into overbought (cricled). This is a slightly bearish sign. AUD/USD has broken above all three of the major moving averages – the 50-4hr, 100-4hr and 200-4hr Simple Moving Averages (SMA) – a bullish indication in the near-term.  It would require a decisive break below the lower channel line for the price to signal a bearish breakout from the channel and the start of a deeper decline.  A decisive break would be one in which AUD/USD formed a long red bearish candlestick on the 4-hr chart that pierced below the channel line and closed near its low, or three consecutive red candles in a row that also broke below the channel line.  

USD/CAD trades above 1.3640 as the US Dollar rebounds ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.The Fed is expected to emphasize keeping interest rates restrictive for a longer period.The Canadian economy is forecasted to have expanded by 0.3% in February.The USD/CAD pair holds auction above the immediate support of 1.3460 in Monday’s early American session. The Loonie asset finds support as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounds after discovering buying interest near the previous week’s low of around 105.46. The USD Index finds support as investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. Financial market participants expect that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the sixth time in a row. As interest rates are expected to remain steady, investors will focus on the interest rate outlook. The Fed is expected to reiterate the need to maintain the current interest rate framework as it is for a longer period. The recent batch of consumer inflation showed that price pressures are stubbornly higher than expectations. The Fed would consider reducing interest rates only after policymakers get evidence that inflation will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%. Meanwhile, the market sentiment is bullish as investors have shrugged off risks of further escalation in Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 has opened on a bullish note. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to 4.64%. On the Canadian Dollar front, investors await the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for February, which will be published on Tuesday. Economists expect that the Canadian economy expanded by half the pace of 0.6% recorded in January. A slowdown in GDP growth will allow the Bank of Canada (BoC) to pivot to interest rate cuts sooner. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3664 Today Daily Change -0.0008 Today Daily Change % -0.06 Today daily open 1.3672   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3669 Daily SMA50 1.3587 Daily SMA100 1.35 Daily SMA200 1.3541   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3696 Previous Daily Low 1.3635 Previous Weekly High 1.3753 Previous Weekly Low 1.3635 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3673 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3658 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3639 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3607 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3579 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.37 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3728 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.376    

EUR/JPY rises up to its highest ever recorded level of 171.60 before retreating. The pair falls over 1.0% after making its record high, possibly as a result of intervention by the Japanese authorities. Eurozone inflation data for Germany and Spain shows price stickiness, potentially providing support for the Euro. EUR/JPY rose to a new all-time high of 171.60 early on Monday before collapsing and retreating over a percentage point, due to direct intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY), it was rumored.  The EUR/JPY beat its previous record high of 169.97 set in 2008, in the early hours of Monday morning, however, it swiftly began to decline thereafter, reaching 165.64 by the time Europe was arriving to work at 07:00 GMT. Since then it has recovered a little, rising back above 167.00 on the back of firm inflation data from Germany and Spain.  The decline has been put down to rumors of a massive currency intervention by the Japanese authorities. It is possible the move came given the countless verbal warnings from the Japanese Minister of Finance Shun’ichi Suzuki over recent weeks, in which he repeated he was watching currency moves carefully and would intervene if necessary.  German and Spanish inflation data show signs of stickiness In Europe, meanwhile, the release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) preferred inflation gauge, in Germany and Spain, painted a picture of persistent inflation.  The data suggests interest rates may need to remain higher for longer in the Eurozone to bring down inflation. This in turn could provide support for the Euro (EUR) since higher interest rates attract greater foreign capital inflows. The HICP for Germany rose by 2.4% in April year-over-year, which was slightly above the 2.3% expected, and 2.3% previous, data from the Federal Statistics Office of Germany showed.  On a monthly basis, German HICP rose 0.6% in April according to preliminary estimates – the same as forecast and previous.  In Spain, HICP rose 3.4% YoY in April compared to 3.3% in the previous month, and 0.6% on month, from 1.4% previously, according to data from INE.   

Annual CPI inflation in Germany held steady at 2.2% in April.EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.0700 after the data.Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer price Index (CPI), remained unchanged at 2.2% on a yearly basis in April, Germany's Destatis reported on Monday. This reading came in below the market expectation of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5% following the 0.4% increase recorded in March. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), the European Central Bank's (ECB) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 0.6% on a monthly basis as forecast. The annual HICP increased 2.4% in the same period, up from 2.3% in March. Market reaction EUR/USD edged slightly higher with the immediate reaction to German inflation data and was last seen rising 0.27% on the day at 1.0720.

Silver price is still probably forming a Bear Flag pattern on the 4-hour chart. The pattern indicates a probable continuation of the bearish trend to targets substantially lower. Support from a long-term support and resistance level at $25.80 is likely to provide a floor for any sell-off. Silver (XAG/USD) price may have formed a Bear Flag pattern on the 4-hour chart with negative implications for the precious metal’s price going forward.  4-hour Chart After a steep decline between April 19-23 Silver price bounced off support at $26.70 and has since consolidated into a rectangle pattern. Taken together with the prior sell-off the whole formation resembles a Bear Flag pattern.   According to technical lore, the expected move down from a Bear Flag equals the length of the preceding “pole” or a Fibonacci ratio of the pole extrapolated from the flag pattern down. In this case the pole is the decline between April 19-23.  The Fibonacci 0.618 ratio of the pole gives a conservative target at roughly $26.30. If Silver price falls the whole length of the pole (Fib. 1.000), however, it will reach a more optimistic target of around $25.50.  Tough support from a long-term upper range boundary line at about $25.80, however, is likely to offer support before Silver price reaches the lower target for the Bear Flag.  A break below the $26.69 low of April 23 would be required to confirm a breakdown of the Bear Flag towards its targets.   In February Silver price started rallying up to the top of a 4-year consolidation close to $30.00. After reaching just shy of this resistance level it formed a multiple shouldered Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern in mid-April.  Silver price then declined to the initial target for the H&S pattern at $26.70 and bounced. Since then it has been consolidating.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso rises as sentiment improves due to gains for tech giants and the easing of real-estate regulations in China.Microsoft and Alphabet stock prices soared at the end of last week, lifting the whole market higher. Speculation of the Chinese authorities easing property market regulations helps soothe investor fears, further supporting sentiment. The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades higher against its key counterparts on Monday morning on the back of a wave of positive market sentiment. Asian stock indices noted gains at the end of their session, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index up 1.6% and China’s Shanghai Composite closing up 0.79% at the time of writing.  USD/MXN is trading down 0.30% at 17.10, EUR/MXN is down over 0.10% at 18.34 and GBP/MXN is down a similar amount at 21.43, at the time of publication during the European session.  Mexican Peso rises on wave of positive risk sentiment The Mexican Peso makes gains at the start of the week as risk sentiment turns positive on speculation the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee's Political Bureau will meet in late April to discuss loosening property policies, according to Reuters.  Market sentiment is being further buoyed by the strong gains seen in US stocks on Friday as a result of expectation-beating first quarter results from Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT). On the data front, the Mexican labor market showed resilience after the release of the Unemployment Rate, which came in lower-than-expected at 2.3% in March from 2.5% previously, according to figures from INEGI. Analysts had been expecting a lesser decline to 2.4%.  Balance of Trade data, released at the same time, showed a higher-than-expected surplus of $2.098 billion in March from $1.195B in the same month of the previous year, and February’s 0.585B deficit, according to data from INEGI. The result was above expectations of a 0.700B surplus.  The data is more likely than not to lead the Banxico to delay further interest-rate cuts. The central bank reduced interest rates from 11.25% to 11.00% at its March meeting, however, it said future cuts would be data dependent. Maintaining higher interest rates for longer is likely to support the Mexican Peso going forward as higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Technical Analysis: USD/MXN extends sideways trend USD/MXN extends its sideways trend over the short-term horizon as it continues to seesaw between tepid gains and losses between range lows in the 16.80s and highs in the 17.40s.  USD/MXN 4-hour Chart   The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has just crossed below its signal line, giving a sell signal and indicating the likelihood that USD/MXN will continue falling to the range floor. The signal is enhanced by the fact that MACD is more reliable in sideways market conditions.  A decisive breakout of the range, either below the range floor at 16.86 or range ceiling at 17.40, would change the directional bias of the pair.  A break below the floor could see further downside to a target at 16.50, followed by the April 9 low at 16.26. On the other side, a breakout higher would activate an upside target first at 17.67, piercing a long-term trendline and then possibly reaching a further target at around 18.15.  A decisive break would be one characterized by a longer-than-average green or red daily candlestick that pierces above or below the range high or low, and that closes near its high or low for the period; or three green/red candlesticks in a row that pierce above/below the respective levels. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The US Dollar slides in Monday’s Asian session to broadly recover later in the European start.Traders are trying to keep their powder dry for the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index briefly dips to 105.47 before erasing nearly the whole move.The US Dollar (USD) took it on the chin on Monday during the Asia-Pacific trading session. Although still unconfirmed, markets are speculating over the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) or its Ministry of Finance intervened in the forex market to support a rapidly weakening Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pair slid lower from 160.17 to 154.50, a more than 3.50% appreciation of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. This sharp move had a ripple effect through the forex markets and saw the Greenback trading weaker across the board.  On the economic data front, Monday presents a very calm start to the week ahead of the main event on Wednesday: the US Federal Reserve (Fed) convening for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The main element will be how Fed Chairman Jerome Powell perceives the current situation after some disappointing US economic data combined with signs of persisting price pressures.  Daily digest market movers: Do interventions really work?Overnight, the Ministry of Finance from Japan or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) possibly intervened in the Japanese Yen, although there isn’t any official word about it. The move comes after the USD/JPY pair hit 160.00 in early trading on Monday. The BoJ intervenes by strengthening its currency in order to avoid having imported inflation from a weak currency, which could trigger more demand from abroad for goods produced locally.  At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April will be released. The previous print was -14.4. The US Treasury will allocate a 3-month and a 6-month bill around 15:30 GMT.  Equities are overall in the green on Monday, cheering the weaker Greenback. Usually, when equities are underperforming, the US Dollar is stronger as an increase of safe haven demand.   The CME Fedwatch Tool suggests an 88.5% probability that June will still see no change to the Federal Reserve's feds fund rate. Odds of a rate cut in July are out of the cards, while for September the tool shows a 43.6% chance that rates will be lower than current levels. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.64% and keeps lingering around this level.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Forget about a calm MondayThe US Dollar Index (DXY) got trashed on Monday after the Japanese Yen rattled markets by strengthening substantially. Add in there the turning sentiment in US data since last week, with Gross Domestic Product and the Purchasing Managers Indices starting to flirt with contraction, that US exceptionalism looks bleak. The US economy is not in stagflation yet, though the window for the Fed to cut interest rates is starting to close rapidly for this year.  On the upside, 105.88 (a pivotal level since March 2023) needs to be recovered again before targeting the April 16 high at 106.52. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.  On the downside, 105.12 and 104.60 should act as support ahead of the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.40 and 104.10, respectively. If those levels are unable to hold, the 100-day SMA near 103.75 is the next best candidate.  Bank of Japan FAQs What is the Bank of Japan? The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%. What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy? The Bank of Japan has embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy since 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen? The Bank’s massive stimulus has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy of holding down rates has led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. Is the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose policy likely to change soon? A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices have led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. Still, the Bank judges that the sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% target has not yet come in sight, so any sudden change in the current policy looks unlikely.  

NZD/USD trades close to a two-week high around 0.5980 amid improved market mood.The US Dollar drops ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting, scheduled for May 1.NZ Q1 Employment data will guide the next move in the Kiwi Dollar.The NZD/USD pair refreshes two-week high near 0.5980 in Monday’s European session. The Kiwi asset is up 0.55% as appeal for risk-sensitive assets is upbeat. The US Dollar drops as weak United States data has raised concerns over its economic outlook.The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains near the key support of 105.50 due to a poor outlook by the S&P Global PMI survey for April and weak Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Meanwhile, investors shift focus to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool shows that interest rates will remain unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, fresh guidance on interest rates will influence further action in the US Dollar. On the New Zealand Dollar front, investors will focus on the Q1 Employment data, which will be published on Tuesday. The labor market is expected to have grown by 0.3%, slower than the prior pace of 0.4%. The Labor Cost Index that feeds price pressures are forecasted to rise slowly by 0.8% from 1.0% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023. Tight labor market conditions would allow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to keep the monetary policy restrictive for a longer period. NZD/USD pair rebounds strongly after the discovery of buying interest around 0.5850. The Kiwi asset rebounded after a Double Bottom formation, which lead to a bullish reversal emerges. The asset has extended its upside above the horizontal resistance plotted from April 1 low around 0.5939, which has become a support for New Zealand Dollar bulls. The near-term outlook improves as the asset holds gains above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 0.5950. The 200-EMA around 0.5990 is still a major roadblock for the New Zealand Dollar bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00, suggesting a bullish momentum has been triggered. Further upside above the psychological resistance of 0.6000 will drive the asset towards April 4 high around 0.6050 and the round-level resistance of 0.6100. On the contrary, a fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below April 16 low at 0.5860. This would drag the asset toward 8 September 2023 low at 0.5847, followed by the round-level support of 0.5900 NZD/USD four-hour chartNZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5974 Today Daily Change 0.0032 Today Daily Change % 0.54 Today daily open 0.5942   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5959 Daily SMA50 0.6045 Daily SMA100 0.6113 Daily SMA200 0.6047   Levels Previous Daily High 0.597 Previous Daily Low 0.5929 Previous Weekly High 0.597 Previous Weekly Low 0.5886 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5945 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5954 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5924 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5906 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5883 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5965 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5988 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6006    

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price edges higher on rumors Japanese authorities are selling the Dollar to buy the YenThe precious metal has weakened amid expectations interest rates will remain higher for longer in the US. The US Federal Reserve meeting in May could color the outlook for interest rates, impacting Gold price.  The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday, trading at $2,338 an ounce, on the back of a weaker US Dollar (USD) – the currency in which Gold is mostly quoted and traded in.  The USD depreciates after heavy selling pressure, purportedly although still unconfirmed by the Japanese authorities, who are selling USD to buy the Japanese Yen (JPY) in order to prop up their currency.  Gold price comes off highs on interest rate outlook The Gold price is trading sideways after a backslide from record highs of $2,430 in mid-April, when it became apparent interest rates would remain higher for longer in the United States. This made non-yielding Gold less attractive because investors could earn relatively more by staying in cash.  Persistently high inflation in the US caused the recalibration of the outlook for interest rates. From the US Federal Reserve (Fed) – the body tasked with setting interest rates in America – foreseeing the need for three 0.25% interest-rate cuts in 2024, markets now expect only one and a half 0.25% cuts, due to persistently high inflation.  More light will be shed on the outlook for interest rates when the Fed meets to decide its monetary policy on Wednesday, in the meantime Gold price may remain relatively subdued.  Gold price may drift lower in the short-term but will eventually recover – TD Securities Gold price is likely to drift lower in the short-term if economic data stays firm and inflation persists but this is unlikely to last into the autumn, according to analysts at investment bank TD Securities.  “..once we start seeing disappointment or negative data surprises, investors may start getting interested again into the autumn,” says Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities.  “Once Western demand is combined with China uptake, it is quite likely that the yellow metal will move above recent record levels. Under this scenario, $2,500+ target would be reasonable,” adds Melek.  Technical Analysis: Gold price pulls back in an uptrend Gold price (XAU/USD) is showing a mixed picture on the 4-hour chart, which technical analysts use to analyze the short-term trend.  On the one hand, the sell-off that began at the April 19 highs could still have lower to go. In such a scenario the move could be unfolding as a three-wave Measured Move pattern with its third and final C wave yet to unfold.  On the other hand, a break above the cluster of Moving Averages and the peak of wave B at $2,353 would potentially usher in a new more bullish environment. This could then see a retest of $2,400. A break below $2,290, however, would confirm more downside as wave C unfolds, with targets at $2,267 and $2,243.  The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is printing green histogram bars but has not yet risen above zero, giving a neutral to marginally positive stance.  Additionally, the trend for Gold price is up both in the medium and long-term, supporting bulls.  Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates). Read more. Next release: Wed May 01, 2024 18:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 5.5%Previous: 5.5%Source: Federal Reserve  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Natural Gas price ticks up, although its upside looks capped due to easing demand. Gas prices could dip lower in the coming days with Freeport supply coming in.The US Dollar Index dives after a sharp appreciation from the Japanese Yen unofficially attributed to an intervention.  Natural Gas (XNG/USD) prices are ticking up above $2 on Monday, showing a distorted picture of fundamentals against correlations. Fundamentally, Gas prices are expected to retreat a little with news that points to higher supply and lower demand, a textbook combination for lower prices. On the demand side,  Europe is about to face a warm weather front, slashing the demand for Gas in the continent. Adding to this, more supply is likely coming online as the US Freeport Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) plant overcomes some of its technical problems, which have weighed on production for the last few months.   Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is easing substantially, helping to push commodities’ prices higher. The easing comes on the back of an unofficial intervention from Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen (JPY), which has strengthened substantially against the US Dollar overnight. This had a ripple effect on the Greenback against other major currencies and pushed commodities higher.   Natural Gas is trading at $2.05 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  Natural Gas news and market movers: Easing on both sidesBloomberg reports that The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas has restarted one of its production trains, according to traders in the commodity. BP has signed a deal with Korea Gas Corporation to deliver 9.8 million tons of LNG over 11 years.  European Natural Gas prices are extending their decline as a warmer weather front moves in for this week and the next.  German Gas storages are still at 67% full, while reserves for overall Europe are at 62%.Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Easing in two speedsNatural Gas is bound to ease a little with flows from the US Freeport plant coming back online, adding to US export volumes, which were tighter these past few weeks. Meanwhile, Europe will see its reserves holding up this week with a warm front coming in. This should at least open some room for a bit of easing in Gas prices, which is already taking place in the European Gas market, while the US market needs to catch up.  On the upside, the blue line at $2.11, the 2023 low, and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2.10 are acting as a resistance. Further up, the next level to watch is the January 25 high at $2.33. On the other side, the $2.00 handle has worked as nearby support for now. Further down, a trifecta of support is formed at $1.88, with the ascending and descending trend lines crossing and the 55-day SMA. Should that level break, expect a quick downward movement to the year-to-date low at $1.60.Natural Gas: Daily Chart Natural Gas FAQs What fundamental factors drive the price of Natural Gas? Supply and demand dynamics are a key factor influencing Natural Gas prices, and are themselves influenced by global economic growth, industrial activity, population growth, production levels, and inventories. The weather impacts Natural Gas prices because more Gas is used during cold winters and hot summers for heating and cooling. Competition from other energy sources impacts prices as consumers may switch to cheaper sources. Geopolitical events are factors as exemplified by the war in Ukraine. Government policies relating to extraction, transportation, and environmental issues also impact prices. What are the main macroeconomic releases that impact on Natural Gas Prices? The main economic release influencing Natural Gas prices is the weekly inventory bulletin from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US government agency that produces US gas market data. The EIA Gas bulletin usually comes out on Thursday at 14:30 GMT, a day after the EIA publishes its weekly Oil bulletin. Economic data from large consumers of Natural Gas can impact supply and demand, the largest of which include China, Germany and Japan. Natural Gas is primarily priced and traded in US Dollars, thus economic releases impacting the US Dollar are also factors. How does the US Dollar influence Natural Gas prices? The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most commodities, including Natural Gas are priced and traded on international markets in US Dollars. As such, the value of the US Dollar is a factor in the price of Natural Gas, because if the Dollar strengthens it means less Dollars are required to buy the same volume of Gas (the price falls), and vice versa if USD strengthens.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD struggles to hold gains above 1.0700 amid uncertainty ahead of key economic events.The ECB seems poised to start reducing key borrowing rates in June.Eurozone’s CPI, Q1 GDP and the Fed’s policy outlook will be in focus.The EUR/USD pair struggles to sustain above the round-level resistance of 1.0700 in Monday’s European session. The major currency pair exhibits caution ahead of the release of key economic indicators in the Eurozone, such as preliminary Eurozone Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published on Tuesday.  Eurozone’s economic data will influence speculation about interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Currently, investors’ expectations that the ECB will start to cut its Main Refinancing Operations Rate from the June meeting strengthened as policymakers see them as reasonable. Last week, Banque de France Governor and ECB Council member François Villeroy de Galhau said there is no need to wait much longer to start interest rate cuts if other things remain constant. Villeroy expects that energy prices are unlikely to rise further despite Middle East tensions and, hence, should not impact the ECB’s plans to pivot to interest rate cuts starting in June. While a rate-cut move in the June meeting is widely expected, there is uncertainty over whether the ECB will extend the rate-tightening campaign. ECB policymakers share different opinions on that as Villeroy said last week: “June rate cuts should be followed by further cuts, at a pragmatic pace.” On the contrary, ECB policymaker and Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel said last week that a June interest rate cut may not necessarily be followed up by a series of rate cuts. Nagel remains worried about higher service inflation due to strong wage growth. He is not fully convinced that inflation will actually return to target in a timely and sustained manner.  In Monday’s session, investors will focus on the German preliminary inflation data for April, which will be published at 12:00 GMT. The annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is expected to have grown steadily by 2.3%. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD is off from daily high ahead of German data The EUR/USD retreats from the intraday high of 1.0734. The major currency pair fails to hold gains even though the market sentiment is favourable for risk-sensitive assets and the US Dollar edges down. Significant gains registered by S&P 500 futures indicate that the market sentiment is risk-on. The US Dollar remains on the backfoot due to uncertainty over the US economic outlook. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, fell to 105.60 as weak preliminary US economic indicators such as the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index survey for April and Q1 GDP have raised concerns over the economy’s strength in coping with higher interest rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The next move in the US Dollar will be guided by the Fed’s monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The US central bank is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%-5.50%. Therefore, investors will focus on the Fed’s guidance for interest rates. Considering the hot Q1 GDP Price Index and higher-than-expected US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, the Fed has no option but to deliver hawkish guidance on interest rates. Fed policymakers are expected to reiterate the need to maintain interest rates at their current levels until they get confidence that inflation will come down sustainably to the desired rate of 2% target. Investors will focus on whether the Fed remains committed to three rate-cut projections during 2024. Actually, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the US central bank will only make two rate cuts this year, and the September meeting is likely to be chosen as the earliest point. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD aims for sustainability above 1.0700The EUR/USD attempts to establish firm footing above the 1.0700 hurdle. The shared currency pair extends its recovery from 1.0600 to 1.0700, but the near-term outlook is still uncertain. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0720 remains a major barricade for the Euro bulls. The 200-day EMA near 1.0800 is declining, suggesting that the long-term appeal is bearish.  The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a consolidation ahead.  The holistic view of the EUR/USD pair indicates a sharp volatility contraction due to a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. The upward-sloping border of the triangle pattern is plotted from the October 3 low at 1.0448, and the downward-sloping border is placed from the December 28 high around 1.1140. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda is back on the wires on Monday, unwilling to comment again on whether there was FX intervention. Additional comments “Will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves.” “Don't have a specific level in mind about appropriate forex level.” “Speculative, rapid, abnormal FX moves have bad impact on the economy, so unacceptable.” “Ready to respond 24 hours, 365 days,” when asked whether Japan was ready to take action in the FX market. Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY keeps its recovery mode intact near 155.80, having tested 154.50 in an exaggerated reaction to a likely intervention by the Japanese authorities during Monday’s Asian trading. The pair is still down 1.53% on the day. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $27.39 per troy ounce, up 0.64% from the $27.22 it cost on Friday. Silver prices have increased by 7.54% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Today Price Silver price per troy ounce $27.39 Silver price per gram $0.88   The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of troy ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one troy ounce of Gold, stood at 85.38 on Monday, down from 85.91 on Friday. Investors might use this ratio to determine the relative valuation of Gold and Silver. Some may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued – or Gold is overvalued – and might buy Silver or sell Gold accordingly. Conversely, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

USD/CHF loses ground due to the improved risk appetite on Monday.Fed is expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in June.SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan stated that the central bank is prepared to lower interest rates again if deemed necessary.USD/CHF retraces its recent gains that registered on Friday, trading around 0.9120 during the European session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) depreciates, possibly reflecting a shift toward a risk-on sentiment, which undermines the USD/CHF pair. However, market analysts expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in its upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday, likely due to concerns about stronger inflation. Additionally, the annual US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March showed a rise on last Friday, suggesting that the Fed may delay any potential rate cuts until September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in the June meeting has increased to 87.7%, up from last week's 81.7%. On the Swiss side, during the SNB's General Meeting of Shareholders on Friday, Chairman Thomas J. Jordan emphasized the bank's commitment to monitoring inflation closely. He stated that the SNB stands ready to reduce interest rates again when necessary. In March, the SNB surprised markets by lowering its main policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5%. Chairman Jordan highlighted the SNB's success in combating inflation but cautioned that uncertainty remains high and shocks can arise unexpectedly. He emphasized the importance of maintaining focus on price stability and warned against calls from critics to broaden the SNB's mandate, labeling such demands as dangerous. Investors are expected to closely watch the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. The CPI serves as the primary indicator for measuring inflation and changes in purchasing trends in Switzerland. USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.912 Today Daily Change -0.0022 Today Daily Change % -0.24 Today daily open 0.9142   Trends Daily SMA20 0.9094 Daily SMA50 0.8955 Daily SMA100 0.8791 Daily SMA200 0.8847   Levels Previous Daily High 0.915 Previous Daily Low 0.9096 Previous Weekly High 0.9157 Previous Weekly Low 0.9087 Previous Monthly High 0.9072 Previous Monthly Low 0.873 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.913 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9117 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.9109 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.9075 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.9054 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9163 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.9184 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.9217    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). Gold price stood at 71,900 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, down INR 216 compared with the INR 72,116 it cost on Friday. As for futures contracts, Gold prices increased to INR 71,564 per 10 gms from INR 71,500 per 10 gms. Prices for Silver futures contracts increased to INR 82,617 per kg from INR 82,496 per kg. Major Indian city Gold Price Ahmedabad 74,450 Mumbai 74,245 New Delhi 74,250 Chennai 74,490 Kolkata 74,520   Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price struggles for a firm direcion amid mixed fundamental cues The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in March, while the yearly rate climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February, beating estimates for a reading of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% as compared to 2.6% anticipated, reaffirming hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and exerting pressure on the non-yielding Gold price on Comex.  Further, Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo fuel optimism about the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which further boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and contributes to driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.  That said, Ukraine attacked more Russian oil refineries over the weekend and also called on more military aid from the US over worsening conditions on the front lines, keeping geopolitical risks in play and lending support to the XAU/USD.  Apart from this, evidence that inflation in the US is not easing as initially expected should act as a tailwind for the metal, which is seen as a hedge against inflation, ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Investors this week will also confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Monday that a “July rate cut is not a done deal.” Additional quotes We are going with at least two rate cuts this year, barring any bad news. We still want policy to remain a little restrictive. Cutting rates again in July could be interpreted to mean we are going to cut at every meeting. And that would lead to repricing that might go too far. July decision should be about managing expectations. I'm very comfortable with rate cut in June. But if we only do two or three rate cuts, then should not communicate that at every meeting. Would be very surprised if ECB does more than 25 bps rate cut in June. Market reaction Despite these comments from the ECB official, EUR/USD is paring back gains to test 1.0700, at the time of writing.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 29: The Japanese Yen (JPY) registered impressive gains against its major rivals to start the week on a suspected intervention. The US economic docket will not offer any high-tier data releases on Monday. Germany's Destatis will release the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February. USD/JPY climbed to a multi-decade high above 160.00 in the early trading hours of the Asian session on Monday. After retreating toward 159.50 area, the pair moved sideways near this level for a couple of hours before declining sharply. USD/JPY lost nearly 400 pips in the next hour and was last seen down 1.7% on the day at 155.60. When asked about the market view of an intervention, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda declined to comment.Japanese Yen sticks to strong intraday recovery gains near 155.00 against USD.Japanese Yen price today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.15% -0.21% -0.02% -0.35% -1.56% -0.33% -0.26%EUR0.14%   -0.07% 0.13% -0.19% -1.41% -0.18% -0.11%GBP0.22% 0.06%   0.20% -0.14% -1.33% -0.12% -0.03%CAD0.01% -0.14% -0.20%   -0.33% -1.63% -0.33% -0.27%AUD0.35% 0.19% 0.13% 0.33%   -1.19% 0.00% 0.08%JPY1.54% 1.38% 1.31% 1.52% 1.17%   1.20% 1.27%NZD0.33% 0.18% 0.12% 0.32% -0.01% -1.22%   0.08%CHF0.26% 0.11% 0.04% 0.24% -0.10% -1.30% -0.09%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   Pressured by the decline seen in USD/JPY, the US Dollar Index turned south on Monday and was last seen losing 0.45% on the day near 105.30. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady above 4.6%, while US stock index futures trade modestly higher on the day. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce monetary policy decisions and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April labor market data on Friday.EUR/USD closed the previous week in positive territory and continued to edge higher early Monday. At the time of press, the pair was up 0.3% on the day at 1.0722.GBP/USD registered marginal losses on Friday but regained its traction to start the week. The pair was last seen trading at its highest level in over two weeks at 1.2535.Gold fell over 2% and snapped a five-week winning streak last week. XAU/USD holds steady early Monday and fluctuates in a tight channel above $2,330. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rises to a two-week high near 1.2550 amid an improved market mood.Investors see the BoE pivoting to interest rate cuts in the June or August meeting.The Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday and the NFP report on Friday will be the key events this week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) prints a fresh two-week high against the US Dollar (USD) near 1.2550 in Monday’s London session. The GBP/USD pair advances due to cheerful market sentiment and a decline in the US Dollar. The Cable strengthens as mixed guidance from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers over the inflation outlook increases uncertainty about when the BoE will start its interest rate cuts cycle. BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said in mid-April that the risks of inflation remaining elevated have receded. Ramsden predicted headline inflation would return to the 2% target in May and said it would likely remain at this level for the next two years. On the contrary, a few other BoE policymakers, such as Chief Economist Huw Pill, Jonathan Haskel, and Catherine Mann, aren’t that optimistic about the inflation outlook. Most of them have referred to the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the preferred measure for decision-making on interest rates, which is still high due to stubborn service inflation. Last week, Pill said: “Time for cutting bank rate remains some way off.”  Financial markets are expecting that the BoE will pivot to rate cuts in the June or August meeting. "It is between June and August, and we are leaning slightly towards August on the basis that one of the key things the BoE is looking at is service inflation," said James Smith, an economist at ING Financial Markets. "If services inflation is a little bit stickier, I think that tilts the balance a little bit further towards August over June, but it's a pretty close call, to be honest", he added. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling moves higher while US Dollar edges down The Pound Sterling rallies to 1.2550, capitalizing on improved market sentiment. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains during the Asian session, suggesting an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. A slight decline in the US Dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision has also boosted the GBP/USD pair. However, firm expectations that the Fed will maintain the hawkish tone could support the US Dollar. The Fed is widely anticipated to hold interest rates steady in the range of 5.25%- 5.50% in its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Fed policymakers are expected to remain data-dependent for further decisions. The central bank will likely reiterate the need to gain more confidence before pivoting to rate cuts. A recent batch of consumer inflation data has not offered any relief to Fed policymakers. The United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, released on Friday, indicated that higher service prices kept price pressures hotter than expected.  Annually, the core PCE inflation data rose by 2.8%, higher than expectations of 2.6% and at the same pace as in February. The monthly inflation data grew parallel with the consensus and the prior release of 0.3%. The 0.3% growth in monthly core PCE is higher than needed for inflation to return to the desired rate of 2%. Apart from the Fed’s monetary policy decision, investors will also focus on the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)  Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for April, which will be published on Wednesday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is estimated to remain above the 50.0 threshold, which separates expansion from contraction. The factory data is seen at 50.1, lower than the prior reading of 50.3. The PMI survey by S&P Global for the same period showed a sharp decline in the scale of production and new orders due to inflationary pressures, weak demand and sufficient stock holdings at customers. Later this week, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be the crucial event that will indicate the current status of the labor market. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rebounds to H&S necklineThe Pound Sterling recovers losses registered in the last weeks and hovers near the neckline of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern. The neckline of the above-mentioned pattern is plotted from December 8 low around 1.2500. The GBP/USD pair attempts to sustain above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), at around 1.2510. The 200-day EMA, at 1.2550, is acting as a major barrier for the Pound Sterling bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a consolidation ahead. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

USD/CAD loses momentum near 1.3645, losing 0.20% on Monday. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged in its current 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday.The decline of crude oil weighs on the commodity-linked Loonie. The USD/CAD pair weakens to 1.3645 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The decline of the US Dollar (USD) drags the pair lower to a nearly three-week low. In the absence of top-tier economic data release from Canada, the USD price dynamics will continue to play a key role in influencing the USD/CAD pair. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision will be the highlight on Wednesday ahead of US employment data on Friday. 

The two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting will end on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. The tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers will most likely be on the hawkish side. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the US central bank needs more confidence that inflation is returning to its 2% target before cutting rates. Investors see a 25% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in July, down from 50% last week. Additionally, financial markets have priced in nearly 60% odds that the Fed will lower the rate at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

About the data, US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, firmer than the market expectation of 2.6%. The Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose by 2.8% YoY in March, above the market consensus of 2.6%. 

On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) governing council members were split on how long the central bank should wait before it begins lowering interest rates when they met earlier this month. Canada’s inflation rate was 2.9% in March, within the BoC's 1-3% target range, and Core inflation eased over the last few months. Markets widely expect the BoC to start cutting its policy rate in June or July. This, in turn, might weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and cap the USD/CAD’s downside. 

Meanwhile, the decline of crude oil exerts some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie, as Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States (US).  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3645 Today Daily Change -0.0027 Today Daily Change % -0.20 Today daily open 1.3672   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3669 Daily SMA50 1.3587 Daily SMA100 1.35 Daily SMA200 1.3541   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3696 Previous Daily Low 1.3635 Previous Weekly High 1.3753 Previous Weekly Low 1.3635 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3673 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3658 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3639 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3607 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3579 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.37 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3728 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.376    

EUR/USD holds its position above the psychological level of 1.0700 amid a momentum shift toward an upward trend.The immediate barrier appears around the major level of 1.0750, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel.A break below 1.0700 could lead the pair toward the support level of 1.0650 and April’s low of 1.0601.EUR/USD recovers its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.0720 during the Asian session on Monday. From a technical perspective, analysis indicates a weakening bearish sentiment for the pair as it continues to advance within the descending channel, breaching the key psychological level of 1.0700. Furthermore, the lagging indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a shift toward upward momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Although positioned below the centerline, it exhibits divergence above the signal line. The EUR/USD pair faces an immediate barrier at the major level of 1.0750, corresponding with the upper boundary of the descending channel. A successful breakthrough above this level could provide upward momentum for the pair, targeting the area near the psychological milestone of 1.0800, followed by April’s high at 1.0885. On the downside, key support for the EUR/USD pair is anticipated around the psychological threshold of 1.0700, coinciding with major support at 1.0695. A breach below this level could exert downward pressure on the pair, potentially driving it toward the vicinity of the major support level at 1.0650. Further support levels may emerge around April’s low at 1.0601, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel. EUR/USD: Daily ChartEUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0725 Today Daily Change 0.0031 Today Daily Change % 0.29 Today daily open 1.0694   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0727 Daily SMA50 1.0805 Daily SMA100 1.0848 Daily SMA200 1.0806   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0753 Previous Daily Low 1.0674 Previous Weekly High 1.0753 Previous Weekly Low 1.0624 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0704 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0723 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0661 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0628 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0582 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.074 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0786 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0819    

FX option expiries for Apr 29 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0650 559m 1.0710 686m 1.0720 579m 1.0725 480m 1.0740 1.4b - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2600 532m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3700 614m 1.3835 940m

NZD/USD attracts fresh buyers on Monday and advances to over a two-week high.A positive risk tone undermines the Greenback and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi.Hawkish Fed expectations should limit the USD losses and cap the upside for the pair.The NZD/USD pair gains strong positive traction on the first day of a new week and rallies to over a two-week high, around the 0.5980-0.5985 region during the Asian session. Against the backdrop of receding fears of an Israel-Iran war, the latest optimism over Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets, which prompts some selling around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi. That said, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations should help limit any meaningful USD downfall and cap the upside for the NZD/USD pair. Investors seem convinced that the US central bank will keep interest rates higher for longer amid still sticky inflation and the bets were reaffirmed by the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the NZD/USD pair. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Apart from this, investors this week will confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the NZD/USD pair. NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5974 Today Daily Change 0.0032 Today Daily Change % 0.54 Today daily open 0.5942   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5959 Daily SMA50 0.6045 Daily SMA100 0.6113 Daily SMA200 0.6047   Levels Previous Daily High 0.597 Previous Daily Low 0.5929 Previous Weekly High 0.597 Previous Weekly Low 0.5886 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5945 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5954 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5924 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5906 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5883 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5965 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5988 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6006    

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday that I won't comment now” when asked by reporters about the market view that Japan intervened in the currency market this morning.

GBP/JPY moves downward after paring intraday gains, a movement possibly linked to intervention by Japanese authorities.The Pound Sterling has strengthened amidst market expectations of BoE holding off on lowering borrowing costs until the next quarter.The significant and enduring interest rate differential between Japan and other nations is anticipated to persist for some time.GBP/JPY has pared its daily losses, moving downward toward 195.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has shown significant intraday strength, possibly influenced by intervention by Japanese authorities to support the domestic currency. However, no official announcements are being made. It's noteworthy that Japanese markets are closed on Monday for Showa Day. Last Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) opted to maintain its policy settings unchanged, which initially exerted downward pressure on the JPY. However, the prevailing optimistic market sentiment has also played a role in diminishing the safe-haven appeal of the JPY. Consequently, these factors have collectively supported the GBP/JPY cross. Moreover, the anticipation of a prolonged and substantial interest rate gap between Japan and other countries suggests a bias for further depreciation in the trajectory of the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, in the UK, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has strengthened amidst market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hold off on lowering borrowing costs until the next quarter, as indicated by median forecasts in a Reuters poll. According to Reuters, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill remarked last week that interest rate cuts are still not imminent. Moreover, persistent inflationary pressures and robust domestic Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures have pushed back expectations for the first BoE rate cut. GBP/JPY Overview Today last price 195.16 Today Daily Change -2.65 Today Daily Change % -1.34 Today daily open 197.81   Trends Daily SMA20 192.3 Daily SMA50 191.15 Daily SMA100 188 Daily SMA200 185.88   Levels Previous Daily High 197.94 Previous Daily Low 193.97 Previous Weekly High 197.94 Previous Weekly Low 190.32 Previous Monthly High 193.54 Previous Monthly Low 187.96 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 196.42 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 195.48 Daily Pivot Point S1 195.21 Daily Pivot Point S2 192.61 Daily Pivot Point S3 191.24 Daily Pivot Point R1 199.17 Daily Pivot Point R2 200.54 Daily Pivot Point R3 203.14    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price ticks lower on Monday amid hawkish Fed expectations and a positive risk tone.A modest USD downtick helps limit the downside amid persistent geopolitical tensions.Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the FOMC meeting and key US macro data this week.Gold price (XAU/USD) meets with some supply during the Asian session on Monday and erases a major part of its modest gains registered over the past two days. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer, which, in turn, is seen driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets further contributes to the offered tone surrounding the safe-haven commodity, though the downside potential seems limited. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on Friday's goodish bounce from a two-week low and kicks off the new week on a softer note, lending some support to the Gold price. Moreover, the Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip, so far, has shown no signs of de-escalation. This, along with the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, keeps geopolitical risks in play and might continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD. Traders might also prefer to wait for the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday and important US macro releases, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.  Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is undermined by a combination of factors, albeit lacking follow-through selling The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in March, while the yearly rate climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February, beating estimates for a reading of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% as compared to 2.6% anticipated, reaffirming hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and exerting pressure on the non-yielding Gold price.  Further, Israel-Hamas peace talks in Cairo fuel optimism about the de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which further boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and contributes to driving flows away from the safe-haven precious metal.  That said, Ukraine attacked more Russian oil refineries over the weekend and also called on more military aid from the US over worsening conditions on the front lines, keeping geopolitical risks in play and lending support to the XAU/USD.  Apart from this, evidence that inflation in the US is not easing as initially expected should act as a tailwind for the metal, which is seen as a hedge against inflation, ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Investors this week will also confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.  Technical Analysis: Gold price needs to break through $2,352-2,353 confluence for bulls to seize near-term control From a technical perspective, last week's bounce from levels below the $2,300 mark faced rejection near the $2,352-2,353 confluence comprising the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the all-time peak and the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). The subsequent downfall, however, showed some resilience below the 100-hour SMA and stalled near the $2,320 area (23.6% Fibo. level), which should now act as a key pivotal point. A sustained break below could make the Gold price vulnerable to retesting last week's swing low, around the $2,292-2,291 region, before dropping to the next relevant support near the $2,268-2,265 zone.  On the flip side, bulls need to wait for a move beyond the $2,352-2,353 confluence hurdle before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then accelerate the positive move towards the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region en route to the $2,400 round figure. The momentum could extend further towards the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

EUR/JPY faces some sell-off to 166.65 in Monday’s Asian session. The Japanese Yen rebounds from a multi-decade low amid the likely FX intervention from the BoJ. The first reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published later on Monday.The EUR/JPY cross loses traction to 166.65 during the Asian session on Monday. The cross reaches the intraday low of 166.36 after retracing from 171.60, the highest level since 2008. The downtick of the cross is supported by the speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent the Japanese Yen (JPY) from depreciation.  

The Japanese policymakers warned in recent weeks that they will take the necessary steps to address excessive moves in the Yen if needed after the JPY weakens to a multi-decade low. The Japanese Yen recovers early Monday amid the likely FX intervention from the BoJ, but no official statement has been made thus far as it’s a holiday in Japan. 

 On the other hand, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers noted that inflation in the Eurozone is cooling down and that the ECB is still likely to begin lowering its deposit rate from a record-high 4% in June. However, investors will take more cues from the incoming inflation data. The first reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be due on Monday. On Wednesday, the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q1 and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will be released. If the reports show a hotter-than-expected outcome, this might lift the Euro (EUR) and cap the downside of the EUR/JPY cross.  EUR/JPY Overview Today last price 167.68 Today Daily Change -1.65 Today Daily Change % -0.97 Today daily open 169.33   Trends Daily SMA20 164.81 Daily SMA50 163.61 Daily SMA100 161.2 Daily SMA200 159.96   Levels Previous Daily High 169.4 Previous Daily Low 166.48 Previous Weekly High 169.4 Previous Weekly Low 164.4 Previous Monthly High 165.36 Previous Monthly Low 160.22 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 168.28 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 167.59 Daily Pivot Point S1 167.41 Daily Pivot Point S2 165.48 Daily Pivot Point S3 164.48 Daily Pivot Point R1 170.33 Daily Pivot Point R2 171.33 Daily Pivot Point R3 173.25    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar appreciates, propelled by an increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA.Australia’s Retail Sales could provide insight into consumer spending habits on Tuesday.The US Dollar retraces its recent gains due to the possible shift toward risk-on sentiment.The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its winning streak on Monday that began on April 22, trading around the three-week high of 0.6560. The AUD's upward momentum is fueled by increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), spurred by last week's CPI inflation data surpassing expectations. The Australian Financial Review reported that Warren Hogan, chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, anticipated that the RBA implement three cash rate hikes throughout 2024, ultimately reaching 5.1%, with the initial increase likely occurring in August. Investors are likely awaiting the March Retail Sales data, scheduled for release on Tuesday, as it provides insight into Australia's consumer spending habits, which significantly impact inflation and GDP trends.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, retraces its recent gains, possibly reflecting a shift toward risk-on sentiment in the market. However, market analysts anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25%–5.5% in its upcoming announcement on Wednesday, likely due to concerns over elevated inflation levels. On Friday, the annual US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for March showed an uptick, adding weight to the notion that the Fed may delay any potential rate cuts until September, as indicated by market speculation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rates remaining unchanged in the June meeting has risen to 87.7%, up from last week’s 81.7%.Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar appreciates on growing hawkish sentiment surrounding RBAMonday saw a strong surge in Australia's stock market, driven by a bullish performance on Wall Street. The ASX 200 Index extended its gains on Monday, with all 11 industry sectors recording gains following the positive momentum on Wall Street on Friday, which was fueled by impressive earnings reports from tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, pushing the Nasdaq up by over 2%. TD Securities' recent revision indicated a delay in the expected rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) until February 2025, shifting from the previously projected date in November. This update has strengthened the Australian Dollar (AUD), consequently boosting the AUD/JPY pair. US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Price Index increased 0.3% month-over-month in March, the same as in February, and matching market forecasts. The annual rate edged up to 2.7%, above forecasts of 2.6%. The US Core PCE - Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge to measure inflation, rose by 2.8% YoY in March 2024. Figures came above market forecasts of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, Core PCE increased by 0.3%, matching February's reading and in line with market estimates. In the first quarter, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1) expanded at a slower pace, falling short of market expectations. The deceleration in GDP growth suggests potential headwinds or slowdowns in various sectors of the economy. Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to an all-time high of 137.40 points in the first quarter of 2024 from 136.10 points in the fourth quarter of 2023. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar holds position around 0.6550 The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6560 on Monday. The pair has extended its advance within a symmetrical triangle formation, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned above the 50-level, affirming a bullish stance. In terms of potential upward targets, the AUD/USD pair may set its sights on the psychological barrier at 0.6600 and subsequently aim for the upper boundary of the triangle, situated around 0.6639. On the downside, immediate support is anticipated around the psychological threshold of 0.6500. Should this level be breached, it could pave the way for further downside momentum, with the subsequent notable support zone lying around 0.6443, followed by additional support levels at April’s low of 0.6362. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.08% -0.12% -0.05% -0.33% 0.69% -0.22% -0.07%EUR0.11%   -0.01% 0.06% -0.22% 0.81% -0.11% 0.03%GBP0.13% 0.03%   0.07% -0.21% 0.82% -0.09% 0.06%CAD0.05% -0.04% -0.07%   -0.28% 0.75% -0.17% -0.03%AUD0.33% 0.24% 0.21% 0.28%   1.02% 0.11% 0.26%JPY-0.68% -0.80% -0.84% -0.75% -1.04%   -0.95% -0.76%NZD0.22% 0.13% 0.08% 0.16% -0.12% 0.91%   0.15%CHF0.08% -0.03% -0.06% -0.01% -0.27% 0.75% -0.15%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee trades in positive territory on the weaker USD on Monday.Analysts anticipate the RBI will continue to keep its policy rate steady at 6.5% in FY25, given India's robust economy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight. Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Monday amid the softer US Dollar (USD) and lower crude oil prices. There is growing speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay rate cuts to September as inflation was stickier than expected and remains above the Fed’s 2% target. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley analysts expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the ongoing financial year due to India's robust economic growth. The higher-for-longer stance of the RBI might support the INR and cap the upside of USD/INR. However, the rising US Treasury bond yields and rebound in oil prices might drag the local currency lower. 

Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on Wednesday. On Friday, attention will shift to the April employment data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. On the Indian docket, India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI for April will be released on Thursday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee gains ground amid multiple headwindsDeloitte India estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6% in the current fiscal year, supported by consumption expenditure, exports rebound, and capital flows.
In contrast to the global scenario, the Indian economy continues to exhibit strong economic performance with broad-based growth across sectors, according to the Monthly Economic Review report of the Department of Economic Affairs under the Finance Ministry.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed by 2.7% YoY in March, compared to 2.5% in February, above the market consensus of 2.6%. 
The Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, stronger than the expectation of 2.6%. 
On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index were in line with market expectations, rising 0.3% in March.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a rate cut by the July meeting fell from 50% last week to 25%, while traders have priced in nearly 60% odds that the Fed will cut the interest rate at its September meeting. Technical analysis: USD/INR remains constructive in the longer termThe Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The bullish outlook of USD/INR remains intact as the pair is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bullish territory above the 50 midline, indicating the path of least resistance is to the upside. 

The first bullish target will emerge near a high of April 15 at 83.50. Any follow-through buying will see a rally to an all-time high of 83.72. The additional upside filter to watch is the 84.00 psychological level. On the flip side, the initial support level for the pair is seen near a low of April 26 at 83.23. The crucial downside target of USD/INR is located at the 83.10–83.15 zone, representing the confluence of the 100-day EMA and a low of April 10. A breach of this level will pave the way to a low of January 15 at 82.78. US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.09% -0.13% -0.07% -0.36% 0.68% -0.25% -0.08%EUR0.09%   -0.05% 0.02% -0.27% 0.78% -0.16% 0.02%GBP0.15% 0.05%   0.07% -0.22% 0.83% -0.11% 0.06%CAD0.07% -0.03% -0.07%   -0.29% 0.76% -0.18% -0.03%AUD0.36% 0.26% 0.22% 0.29%   1.05% 0.11% 0.27%JPY-0.68% -0.80% -0.86% -0.78% -1.07%   -0.96% -0.78%NZD0.25% 0.16% 0.11% 0.18% -0.11% 0.95%   0.17%CHF0.09% 0.01% -0.05% 0.01% -0.27% 0.76% -0.17%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

WTI drifts lower on Monday amid concerns about slowing fuel demand.Geopolitical risks remain in play and should help limit any further losses.Traders now await this week’s central bank event risk and key macro data.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices kick off the new week on a weaker note and slide below the $83.00/barrel mark during the Asian session. Against the backdrop of receding fears about a further escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict, concerns that higher interest rates in the US will dent fuel demand in the world's top consumer and exert some pressure on the black liquid. The worries were reaffirmed by weaker-than-expected US Q1 GDP growth figures released last week. Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates. The hawkish outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of the underlying bullish tone around the US Dollar (USD) and might continue to weigh on Crude Oil prices. Meanwhile, Ukraine attacked more Russian oil refineries over the weekend. This comes after Russia announced more export and production cuts earlier this year, which, along with little signs of de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, keep supply risks in play and should help limit any meaningful downside for Crude Oil prices. Market participants now look forward to Tuesday's release of official PMI prints from China – the world's top Oil importer – for a fresh impetus. The focus will then shift to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday and important US macro data, including the NFP report, scheduled at the beginning of a new month. Nevertheless, the aforementioned mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive directional bets and positioning for a further intraday depreciating move in the absence of any relevant economic data from the US on Monday. WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 82.88 Today Daily Change -0.57 Today Daily Change % -0.68 Today daily open 83.45   Trends Daily SMA20 84.19 Daily SMA50 81.25 Daily SMA100 77.48 Daily SMA200 79.79   Levels Previous Daily High 84.18 Previous Daily Low 83.1 Previous Weekly High 84.18 Previous Weekly Low 80.62 Previous Monthly High 83.05 Previous Monthly Low 76.5 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 83.51 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 83.77 Daily Pivot Point S1 82.98 Daily Pivot Point S2 82.5 Daily Pivot Point S3 81.9 Daily Pivot Point R1 84.05 Daily Pivot Point R2 84.65 Daily Pivot Point R3 85.13    

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Japanese Yen dives to a nearly 40-year low amid relatively thin liquidity on Monday.The divergent BoJ-Fed monetary policy and a positive risk tone weigh heavily on the JPY.Intervention fears cap USD/JPY amid a modest USD downtick and overbought conditions.The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of a new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the 160.00 psychological mark for the first time since October 1986. A big divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations continue to undermine the JPY amid relatively thin liquidity on the back of a holiday in Japanese markets. That said, extremely overbought conditions and fears about a possible intervention from Japan to prop up its currency help limit further losses. Apart from this, a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick caps gains for the currency pair, though any meaningful JPY appreciation still seems elusive in the wake of the BoJ's uncertain rate outlook.  Furthermore, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released on Friday reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to act as a tailwind for the Greenback. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone could undermine the safe-haven JPY and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Investors this week will also confront the release of important US macro data scheduled at the beginning of a new month, including the closely-watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday before placing fresh directional bets. Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen is undermined by BoJ’s cautious approach towards further policy tighteningThe Japanese Yen plummets to a fresh multi-decade low during the Asian session on Monday amid a big divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, though intervention fears cap gains. 
As was widely anticipated, the BoJ left its short-term interest rates unchanged on Friday and indicated that inflation was on track to hit the 2% target in coming years, suggesting its readiness to hike borrowing costs later this year.
In the post-meeting press conference, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda offered few clues on when the next rate hike will come and ruled out shifting to a full-fledged reduction in the bond purchases, warranting caution for the JPY bulls.
Moreover, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index released on Friday indicated that inflation in Japan is cooling, which, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, should cap any meaningful upside for the safe-haven JPY.
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost three key by-election seats, which is not seen as a vote of confidence in Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and argued against him being reappointed at the end of the term in September. 
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in March, while the yearly rate climbed to 2.7% from 2.5% in February, beating estimates for a reading of 2.6%.
Adding to this, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at the 2.8% YoY rate as compared to 2.6% anticipated, reaffirming bets that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 58% chance that the Fed will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, down from 68% a week ago, and a more than 80% possibility of easing in December. 
This suggests that the wide gap in rates between Japan and the United States will remain for some time, which, along with a positive risk tone, should cap the upside for the safe-haven JPY and lend support to the USD/JPY pair. 
Investors now look forward to this week's key central bank event risk – a two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday and the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report – for a fresh directional impetus. Technical Analysis: USD/JPY looks to build on Friday’s ascending channel breakout, overbought RSI warrants caution From a technical perspective, Friday's breakout through an upward-sloping trend channel extending from the YTD low was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing extremely overbought conditions, which makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for further gains. That said, any meaningful slide below the 159.00 mark is likely to attract fresh buyers near the 158.35-158.30 region and remain limited near the 158.00 mark. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the USD/JPY pair back towards the ascending channel resistance breakpoint near the 157.00 round figures. Bulls, meanwhile, will remain wary of placing fresh bets amid fears that Japanese authorities will intervene near the 160.00 pivotal point. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.  

Kyo News Agency reported late Sunday that Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), headed by Prime Minister (PM) Fumio Kishida, lost three key seats in House of Representatives by-elections held earlier Sunday. This comes even as the LDP chose not to contest in the Nagasaki and Tokyo by-elections. But it lost Shimane, a long-time held LDP prefecture. The leading opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, led by left-leaning lower house lawmaker Kenta Izumi since November 2021, acquired all three seats by obtaining support from anti-LDP voters. LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi, its No. 2 personnel after Kishida, told reporters in Tokyo, "We will humbly accept the results" of Sunday's by-elections, adding that the party "needs to work as one to grapple with the challenge."  Kishida's term as party president expires in September and the defeat is unlikely to work in his favor later this year.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar surges driven by growing hawkish sentiment surrounding RBA, following the hot CPI data.Judo Bank chief economic adviser Warren Hogan predicts that the RBA might increase the cash rate three times in 2024.The safe-haven JPY loses ground due to the uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's rate outlook.AUD/JPY continues its winning streak for the sixth successive session on Monday, hovering around 104.50, a level not seen since April 2013. The persistent upward momentum of the AUD/JPY pair is driven by the increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), following the release of last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. The unexpected surge in inflation figures prompted economists to revise their earlier forecasts significantly. Warren Hogan, chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, told “The Australian Financial Review” his anticipation of the central bank raising the cash rate three times this year, reaching 5.1%, with the first hike likely in August. Investors now look forward to Retail Sales for March on Tuesday, which gauges Australia’s consumer spending. It has a significant bearing on Australia’s inflation and GDP. The Japanese Yen (JPY) tumbled to new multi-decade lows following the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain policy settings unchanged on Friday. Uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's rate outlook, indications of cooling inflation in Japan, and a generally optimistic sentiment in equity markets are pivotal factors eroding the safe-haven appeal of the JPY. Furthermore, expectations for a prolonged wide interest rate differential between Japan and the other countries imply that the JPY's trajectory is biased towards further decline. With Japanese markets closed on Monday for Showa Day, market dynamics may see limited shifts in the absence of trading activity. Daily Digest Market Movers: AUD/JPY rises on increasing hawkish sentiment surrounding RBA Australia's stock market experienced a robust rally on Monday, inspired by a strong performance on Wall Street. The ASX 200 Index recovered some ground lost on Friday, with all 11 industry sectors trading in positive territory. Friday's rally on Wall Street was fueled by impressive earnings reports from tech giants such as Microsoft and Google's parent company, Alphabet, propelling the Nasdaq up by more than 2% On Friday, TD Securities' revision suggests a postponement of the anticipated rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) until February 2025, shifting from the previously anticipated date in November. This development strengthens the Australian Dollar (AUD) and, in turn, bolsters the AUD/JPY pair. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda provided insights into the central bank's decision to maintain the status quo during the post-policy meeting press conference on Friday. Ueda outlined that the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the underlying inflation rate rises. Additionally, He emphasized that easy financial conditions will be maintained for the time being, indicating the BoJ's commitment to supporting economic recovery and stability through accommodative monetary measures. Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose 1.8% YoY in April, well below the previous print of 2.6%. Markets were broadly expecting Tokyo inflation to hold steady over the period. The Core CPI fell sharply to 1.6% year-on-year, marking its lowest level since March 2022 and falling well below forecasts of 2.2%. On Friday, a report from Reuters said that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to project that inflation will remain close to its 2% target in the coming years and signal its preparedness to raise interest rates from their near-zero levels. This stance by the BOJ is aimed at preventing Yen depreciation and discouraging market participants from pushing the currency to fresh 34-year lows. Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to an all-time high of 137.40 points in the first quarter of 2024 from 136.10 points in the fourth quarter of 2023. As reported by the Japan Times, the percentage of Japanese companies aiming to raise their pay scales has surged to 70.7%, representing a notable increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the prior year. Furthermore, the number of companies intending to implement pay-scale hikes and regular pay increases totaling 5% or higher has nearly doubled from the previous year, reaching 36.5%. This trend holds the potential to enhance the purchasing power of individuals, potentially leading to an uptick in consumer prices. Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY surges to the major level of 104.50 The AUD/JPY trades around 104.50 on Monday, surpassing the upper boundary of the daily ascending channel. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending above the 50-level, strengthening the bullish sentiment. The immediate resistance is seen at the psychological level of 105.00. A breakthrough above this level could support the cross to test the highest level of 105.43 recorded in April 2013. On the downside, immediate support for the AUD/JPY pair could be found at the psychological level of 104.00. If the pair breaches below this level, the AUD/JPY cross could lead to a further decline toward the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 101.59, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a major level of 101.50. AUD/JPY: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.07% -0.11% -0.05% -0.28% 0.55% -0.23% -0.12%EUR0.07%   -0.04% 0.01% -0.21% 0.61% -0.15% -0.04%GBP0.12% 0.04%   0.06% -0.16% 0.67% -0.12% 0.01%CAD0.05% -0.02% -0.06%   -0.22% 0.61% -0.18% -0.08%AUD0.28% 0.20% 0.16% 0.22%   0.83% 0.05% 0.16%JPY-0.63% -0.71% -0.76% -0.69% -0.94%   -0.87% -0.76%NZD0.23% 0.15% 0.10% 0.17% -0.05% 0.77%   0.11%CHF0.13% 0.06% 0.00% 0.06% -0.16% 0.66% -0.11%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

GBP/USD trades on a positive note around 1.2520 amid weaker USD on Monday. The recent US PCE inflation data dialed back their expectation of when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates.Investors increased their bets that the BoE will start cutting rates in June.The GBP/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.2520 on Monday during the early Asian session. The uptick of the major pair is supported by the softer US Dollar (USD) below the 106.00 psychological mark. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and Press Conference on Wednesday. 

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged in its current 5.25%–5.5% range on Wednesday. The US economy remains strong, and inflation has started to turn higher. On Friday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.8% YoY in March. These reports have triggered speculation that the first cut might not come until September. 

The Fed policymakers noted that rate cuts are not coming in the next several months as inflation was stickier than expected and remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The higher-for-longer stance from the US central bank might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the downside of the GBP/USD pair. 

On the other hand, investors raise their bets that the Bank of England (BoE) will start lowering borrowing costs in its June meeting. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said during the press conference after the last monetary policy meeting that two or three rate cuts this year are not "unreasonable." A dovish shift in the BoE remarks might lead to a weaker Pound Sterling (GBP) and create a headwind for the pair.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2522 Today Daily Change 0.0028 Today Daily Change % 0.22 Today daily open 1.2494   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2517 Daily SMA50 1.2624 Daily SMA100 1.265 Daily SMA200 1.2557   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2542 Previous Daily Low 1.2449 Previous Weekly High 1.2542 Previous Weekly Low 1.23 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2485 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2507 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2448 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2402 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2355 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2541 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2588 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2633    

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1066 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1056 and 7.2579 Reuters estimates.

EUR/USD gains ground 1.0710 amid the softer USD on Monday. The US PCE inflation rose by 2.7% YoY in March, compared to 2.5% prior, which was hotter-than-expected. The ECB might cut interest rates before the Fed amid the cooler inflation in the Eurozone. The EUR/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.0710 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) below the 106.00 mark provides some support to the major pair. The first reading of the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is due on Monday. All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 

The recent US inflation data dialed back their expectation of when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of a rate cut by the July meeting falls from 50% last week to 25%, while traders have priced in nearly 60% odds that the Fed will cut the interest rate at its September meeting. This, in turn, might lift the Greenback and cap the upside of the EUR/USD pair in the near term. 

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.7% YoY in March, compared to the previous reading of 2.5%, above the 2.6% estimated. The Core PCE figure, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, firmer than the 2.6% expected. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in March.

Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) emphasized cooler inflation in the Eurozone and signaled that the ECB might cut interest rates before the Fed. ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank is still likely to begin lowering its deposit rate from a record-high 4% in June, but has been careful to leave open its options for the path beyond. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0709 Today Daily Change 0.0015 Today Daily Change % 0.14 Today daily open 1.0694   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0727 Daily SMA50 1.0805 Daily SMA100 1.0848 Daily SMA200 1.0806   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0753 Previous Daily Low 1.0674 Previous Weekly High 1.0753 Previous Weekly Low 1.0624 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0704 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0723 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0661 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0628 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0582 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.074 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0786 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0819    

Gold price edges lower to $2,335 in Monday’s early Asian session. The recent US inflation data added to market doubts about near-term US Fed rate cuts.Any escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions might boost safe-haven flows, benefiting precious metals. Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a softer note near $2,335 on Monday during the early Asian session. The recent US economic data showed that US inflationary pressures staying firm, which has added further to market doubts about near-term US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision will be a closely watched event. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, drops to 106.00. The US Treasury bond yields edge lower, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.667%.

On Friday, the headline and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March were in line with expectations, rising by 0.3% MoM. The annual headline inflation came in at 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, hotter than the 2.6% expected. Core PCE inflation increased by 2.8% YoY, above expectations of 2.6%. 

Futures markets have priced in nearly 60% odds that the Fed will cut the interest rate at its September meeting, slightly more than before the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The US Fed is anticipated to keep the policy rate in its current 5.25%–5.5% range on Wednesday and to continue to signal no urgency on cuts. The hawkish stance in market sentiment could diminish the appeal of non-yielding metals and weigh on the gold price. 

On Saturday, Hamas said that it was reviewing a fresh Israeli proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza. It came as Egypt intensified its attempts to secure an agreement between Israel and Hamas to halt the conflict and avoid an Israeli military invasion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, per the Guardian. Gold traders will monitor the development surrounding the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Any escalating tensions might boost traditional safe-haven assets like gold.  XAU/USD Overview Today last price 2335.91 Today Daily Change -2.19 Today Daily Change % -0.09 Today daily open 2338.1   Trends Daily SMA20 2336.52 Daily SMA50 2205.8 Daily SMA100 2118.56 Daily SMA200 2029.49   Levels Previous Daily High 2352.65 Previous Daily Low 2326.39 Previous Weekly High 2392.46 Previous Weekly Low 2291.47 Previous Monthly High 2236.27 Previous Monthly Low 2039.12 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2342.62 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2336.42 Daily Pivot Point S1 2325.44 Daily Pivot Point S2 2312.79 Daily Pivot Point S3 2299.18 Daily Pivot Point R1 2351.7 Daily Pivot Point R2 2365.31 Daily Pivot Point R3 2377.96    

AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a stronger note near 0.6535. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index climbed by 2.7% YoY in March, above the market consensus of 2.6%. The firmer-than-expected Australian inflation data have triggered the RBA to delay the interest rate cut this year.The AUD/USD pair trades in positive territory for six consecutive days around 0.6535 during the early Asian session on Monday. The upward momentum of the pair is bolstered by the hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) after the recent release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data last week. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight for this week.  

Inflation in the United States rose moderately in March, keeping the US Fed to hold the interest rate higher for longer for a while. US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, climbed to 2.7% YoY in March from 2.5% in February, above the market consensus of 2.6%, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% YoY in March, stronger than the expectation of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and the core PCE Price Index rose 0.3% in March. The US central bank is expected to hold rates steady in the 5.25%–5.50% range on Wednesday. Investors anticipate the first rate cut to come in September, as recent labor market and inflation data showed a surprise on the upside.

On the Aussie front, traders increase their bets that the RBA might raise its cash rate again before it cuts. The hotter-than-anticipated Australian inflation last week erased the odds of a rate cut this year. The futures market has priced in just a 19% chance of easing at the RBA’s December meeting. The hawkish stance of the RBA boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD) and creates a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair.  AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6536 Today Daily Change 0.0003 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 0.6533   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6505 Daily SMA50 0.6533 Daily SMA100 0.6587 Daily SMA200 0.6527   Levels Previous Daily High 0.6554 Previous Daily Low 0.6517 Previous Weekly High 0.6554 Previous Weekly Low 0.6414 Previous Monthly High 0.6667 Previous Monthly Low 0.6478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.654 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6531 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6515 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6497 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6477 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6553 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6572 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6591